Hi friends! 👋
Here’s what I’m looking at today.
Q4 Outlook
Under the Hood
Clear Bull Market Behavior
Main Street Sells, Wall Street Buys
My Meta Home Run
Thanks for reading Spilled Coffee. Let’s get into it.
Eric
A green week for the big three. The Nasdaq led again, up 2.1% for back to back positive weeks. Tech is still doing the heavy lifting.
The S&P 500 added 1.2%, its first positive week in the past three. It closed at 7,743.
The Dow finally snapped a three week losing streak. Only up 0.3%.
Small caps were left out. The Russell 2000 slipped 0.8% on the week.
The number I keep staring at is the 10-year. It closed at 5.18%, back to 2007 levels, and it’s up 24.5% this year. Stocks keep shrugging it off. For now.
Oil fell 7.8% on the week but is still up almost 60% on the year. Gold gave back 2.4% and is barely positive for 2026. Bitcoin bounced 3.6% but is still in the red year to date.
Here’s how it all shook out.
Market Recap
Weekly Heat Map of Stocks
Sentiment Check
October Is Here
The calendar flips to October next week. Historically, that’s a good thing.
September has earned its bad reputation. Since 1950, it’s been the worst month of the year for the S&P 500, averaging a 0.7% loss. Then the final quarter shows up and things get a lot better. October, November, and December are all solidly positive on average.
It gets even better in a midterm year. Which is this year.
October is the best month of the midterm year for the S&P 500. It’s averaged a 3.0% gain and finished higher about 74% of the time. November is right behind it, averaging 2.7% and finishing higher almost 79% of the time.
And it’s not just the S&P. Since 1950, the Dow has averaged a 3.2% gain in midterm Octobers. The Nasdaq has averaged 3.2% too.
The best two month stretch of the midterm year starts next week.
Q4 Outlook
2026 has been a good year. For the market, and for my calls.
The S&P 500 closed the week at 7,743. Back in January, I set a year-end price target of 7,900 in Investing Update: 2025 Recap & 2026 Outlook. I haven’t touched it since. Not once. We’re now about 2% away with a full quarter to go.
That follows last year’s call. In Investing Update: 2024 Recap & 2025 Outlook, I called for the S&P 500 to finish 2025 at 6,900. It finished at 6,846. Less than 1% off.
Let’s see if I can get even closer this year.
My Portfolio vs the S&P 500
Here’s where my actively managed portfolio sits heading into Q4.
My Portfolio (Actively Managed) +21.2%
S&P 500 +13.1%
That's an 8.1 percentage point lead with three months to go. If it holds, it would mark the 4th straight year I've outperformed the S&P 500, and the 8th time in the past 10 years.
My 3 Stocks for 2026
In January, I picked 3 Stocks For 2026. All three are beating the S&P 500.
Meta +15.5%
Apple +25.8%
CrowdStrike +122.3%
So where does that leave me for the rest of the year? What do I see happening in Q4?
Let’s take a look.