Investing Update: I Read The Data, Not The Headlines
What I'm buying, selling & watching
The S&P 500 closed at 7,431, up 0.6% on the week. That makes it 10 up weeks out of the last 11.
The Nasdaq added 0.7% to 25,889. The Dow climbed 0.9% to 51,202. But the real story this week was small caps. The Russell 2000 ripped 3.9%, now up 17.7% on the year and starting to close the gap with its larger siblings.
The catalyst? Reports that the US and Iran are closing in on an interim peace deal. Markets hate uncertainty, and a de-escalation in the Middle East removes one of the bigger tail risks investors have been pricing in.
You can see it in oil. Crude dropped 6.9% on the week to $84.29. Still up a wild 45.5% year to date, but that single week move tells you how much geopolitical risk premium was baked into the price.
Gold slipped 2.2% to $4,240, still negative on the year at -3.0%. The 10-year Treasury yield ticked down 1.1% to 4.49%. Bitcoin held its ground, up 1.1% to 63,758, though it remains down 27.1% on the year.
Market Recap
Weekly Heat Map Of Stocks
I Read The Data, Not The Headlines
Every week it’s something new. Tariffs, Iran, inflation, the Fed, recession odds, take your pick. The headlines change, but the questions don’t. Are we at the top? Is this the pullback that finally sticks?
Here’s the thing. I don’t trade headlines. I watch the data underneath them. And right now, the data is telling a much calmer story than the noise would have you believe.
Breadth Is Quietly Improving
While the S&P 500 was tracking toward its second straight weekly decline, something interesting was happening beneath the surface. The percentage of stocks trading above their 20-day and 50-day moving averages actually improved over the past couple weeks. At the same time, NYSE new lows have been declining, a sign that capital is rotating into areas of the market that had been lagging.
The takeaway. The index was wobbling, but the foundation underneath it was getting stronger, not weaker. 60% of S&P 500 stocks are above their 200-day moving average. Not a screaming buy signal on its own, but solid.
The Pattern Still Works