Investing Update: 5 Stocks For The 2nd Half
What I'm buying, selling & watching
The S&P 500 closed the week up 1.2%, now sitting just 0.6% away from a fresh record high. Back to back weekly gains for the index, and the Nasdaq matched it, up 1.7% and now up 13.1% year to date.
Only two down weeks since the start of April for the S&P 500. Two. That's how quietly this market has been grinding higher while everyone's busy arguing about tech.
Elsewhere in the market. Small caps are on a tear, with the Russell 2000 up 19.1% year to date. Oil is having a moment too, up 4.1% on the week and 23.4% YTD. Bitcoin is the lone holdout, still sitting on a 26.6% loss for the year despite the risk-on backdrop.
Market Recap
Weekly Heat Map Of Stocks
Sentiment Check
Still more bears than bulls.
Before we move into my 5 stocks for the 2nd half, a few charts worth hitting on first.
The S&P 500 has continued to hold the 50-day moving average, exactly what you want to see in a healthy uptrend.
Leave it up to my friend Ryan Detrick to come up with this great stat and chart. There have been 41 other times since 1950 that the S&P 500 gained more than 10% in a quarter. The next quarter was higher 85% of the time. The next two quarters were higher 85% of the time. And the next year was up a median of 13.4%. Momentum is real, and history says this kind of strength tends to keep going, not reverse.
On top of that, the VIX has fallen below 16, the second lowest close over the past month. It’s the lowest point since January, a fresh 120-day low. A falling VIX alongside a market grinding to new highs is about as clean a “risk on” signal as you’ll get.
Here’s the part worth watching closely though. We’re seeing new highs in energy and health care stocks. Outside of those two, there just aren’t many new highs to point to. Look at the percentage of stocks hitting 4 week and 52 week highs by sector, energy is the standout at 24% and 10%, while most other sectors are stuck in the low single digits. This rally is still narrower under the hood than the index level suggests.
That narrowness shows up in the flow data too. Sector flows in June leaned more defensive, with money moving into industrials, materials, and utilities. Meanwhile there were outflows from consumer staples, communication services, and energy. Worth noting since energy is also putting up the best new high numbers, so positioning and price action aren’t fully in sync there.
Put it together and you get a market that’s technically healthy, historically well supported after a quarter like this one, and running with low volatility, but still narrower beneath the surface than the headline numbers let on. That’s the backdrop heading into the 5 stocks I want to highlight for the second half.
5 Stocks For The 2nd Half
I’ve got three stocks I picked for 2026 that I still love. If you asked me today, they’d be the first three names on this list. No hesitation. 3 Stocks For 2026
But that’s not what this piece is about. You’ve already heard my case for those names. I want to give you five fresh picks for the second half. Names we haven’t covered together yet. Some of these will feel obvious. A couple might surprise you. All five are names I think can work between now and year end.
Let’s get into it.