2026 Feels Like 2022. One Big Difference.
Midterm year. Energy shock. Mag 7 in freefall. We've seen this movie before.
I remember 2022 well.
It was the last time my portfolio was in the red. It was not fun. The stock market felt like it was broken. Nothing worked. Every rally got sold. Every piece of good news was ignored. Every piece of bad news sent stocks lower.
Sound familiar?
Before we get into what is different this time, let’s talk about what is the same. Because the parallels between 2022 and 2026 are striking.
The wall of worry looks the same
In 2022, the market peaked on January 3rd. From there it was a slow, painful grind lower. Tech stocks led the way down. The Mag 7 got absolutely destroyed.
Sound familiar? The S&P 500 hit its most recent all-time high on January 28, 2026. And just like in 2022, the Mag 7 has been leading the way down ever since.
Here is what those stocks did in 2022 and how 2026 is shaping up so far:
The Mag 7 index fell roughly 50% from peak to trough in 2022. The S&P 500 bottomed on October 12th. Tech stocks didn’t find their floor until December 31st. It was almost a two-year bear market for the names that had been carrying the market higher.
And it is not just the YTD numbers that tell the story. Here is where these same stocks sit right now from their 52-week highs:
Microsoft down 31% from its high. Meta down 24%. Tesla down 24%. These are not small pullbacks. This is real pain.
But before you do anything, let's talk about why 2026 feels so much like 2022 and the one thing that is completely different this time.